There are varying opinions on how the movement will become a force in the upcoming year, with the formal formation of the opposition coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
In an attempt to guarantee Tinubu’s return to power in 2027, the alliance gained prominence at a time when Nigeria is seeing a wave of defections to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Other prominent figures, including Atiku, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, Babachir Lawal, the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State, and Abubakar Malami, the former Attorney General of the Federation, have been able to unite the coalition despite the defections.
The coalition, which was organised by the National Political Consultative Group (NPCG) North, convened in Abuja and included prominent Nigerians such as Obi, Amaechi, Captain Idris Wada, the former Attorney-General of the Federation, and Abubakar Malami, the Minister of Justice.
Others included former Senate President and Peoples Democratic Party Board of Trustees Chairman Senator Adolphus Wabara; Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, the Labour Party’s 2023 vice presidential candidate; Ambassador Aminu Wali, a former Foreign Affairs Minister; Adamu Maina Waziri, a former Police Affairs Minister; Babachir Lawal, a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation; Salihu Lukman, a former national vice chairman (North) of the All Progressives Congress; Senator Ben Obi; and Bolaji Abdullahi, a former Youth Development Minister.
As the organisation searches for a political party to join, the presence of these aspiring lawmakers has highlighted the movement’s gravity.
Ralph Okey Nwosu, the National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), made a suggestion that the party’s selection as the coalition’s vehicle will be decided within the next week or two.
According to Nwosu, the parties’ different committees have met with the participants in the negotiations.
Peter Obi’s one step in one step out
From the onset, Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai are the “poster boys” of the coalition but the former Anambra State governor had declared that he would continue to run under the Labour Party “for now.”
Despite insisting that he is an LP member, Obi has remained a very important figure in the coalition movement.
Speaking to The Intercept, the National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Tanko Yunusa had said: “He spoke at a coffee party in Abuja where he was asked if he will still run under the Labour Party and he said he’s still a member and will run under the party ‘for now,’ he put it under a caveat ‘for now.”
Obi’s involvement confusing, an affront – LP
The Labour Party, or LP, expressed disapproval of Obi’s participation and called the coalition effort an insult to its leadership.
The LP’s National Publicity Secretary, Obiorah Ifoh, stated that the party is unsure of Obi’s position on the platform he intends to run on in the 2027 election.
According to a statement Ifoh sent to The Intercept, “His Excellency, Peter Obi was spotted at a pro-coalition group meeting in Abuja on Sunday (yesterday) without the permission and consent of the Labour Party leadership, just hours after he announced his intention to run under the Labour Party.”
We find this to be somewhat perplexing, and we believe Peter Obi has not yet reconciled his goals for the 2027 presidential contest.
“We have consistently said that the Labour Party will not go into any coalition or merger of any sort ahead of the 2027 general election, therefore Obi’s continued association with the coalition is not only distasteful but unacceptable to the party.
“It is also an affront to the party’s leadership and we view his position as a total disregard to the party’s right to make decisions binding its affairs.
“We are therefore by this statement letting Nigerians know that the presidency for 2027 is open to anyone who wants to run under the platform of the party.”
Coalition can become a force ahead of 2027, push Tinubu into concession – Ononuju
The former Special Adviser to Obi on Public Affairs when he was governor of Anambra State, Katchy Ononuju, said the coalition can become a force that will wrest power from Tinubu in 2027 if it’s willing to avoid the pitfalls that led to crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Ononuju said the members should trust Obi who has the largest movement backing him while bringing together all parties within.
He told The Intercept that: “The idea of a coalition for me is the final waking up period for the opposition, if they understand why the opposition was torn apart, they can fix it and everybody will come back together.
“The opposition died in Nigeria due to the inability of Atiku and other leaders to respect zoning, that was why the Southerners broke out of the PDP and they could not come together.
“It’s a good thing to come together to talk and call it an alliance, but you also need to go back to fundamentally resolve this problem.
“It’s eight years and Tinubu has it now, meaning it’s only two years in the South – the coalition can find Southern members they can trust and go behind such people.
“What killed opposition in Nigeria is the refusal of the PDP to zone and that’s why they broke into different branch – Peter Obi left to start the Obidient Movement, Kwankwaso left and started NNPP, so by the time elections came the party has gotten so weak, the party’s problem has continued to the extent that people now have to come outside the party to be able to call meetings with other politicians from different parties and different persuasions in Nigeria.
“If they can come together, it will be a very good thing for this democracy because every democracy needs a good opposition but to come together peacefully, they need to understand the real reason why the opposition split.
“If they can assist to find a Southerner who is very popular and all of them will join hands, then we can talk of fixing the opposition. That also will force concessions from the hands of President Tinubu because his nepotism is replicating Buhari’s bad ways and I don’t think that is good for our country.
“Nepotism should not be a state policy and I condemn it. The coming together of the opposition will force Tinubu to lose his nepotic reply of Buhari’s exclusion policy against the rest of the country.
“If well organized – you saw what Obi did with just eight months to elections – if you now have such a force established two years to election – people will start coming together and that would make the president sit up, not minding the thoughts of somebody writing results.
“Look at the Kano principle, how many people are on the streets of Kano? The word says they are up to 500,000 people, the government won’t go out to kill them? You see, rigging persists because of the people, if the people say no we would stay on the streets, they won’t kill them all.
“I see the region that is very known for putting the people on the streets – the North – are not very much with Tinubu.
“It wouldn’t be very easy for him but one good thing I believe will come out of this is that Tinubu will start reacting towards inclusion, he would make appointments from the North, from the East, and that may not be good enough. He needs to reshuffle his cabinet and bring in more people to build a better Nigeria.
“I’m surprised Tinubu is such a failure in the issues of inclusion, nepotism may have worked under Buhari, he used it to flood the security services, now the police and Army can’t stop the Fulani war.
“Politicians from the North who are impressed with the work Obi has done, they will have to find a way to accommodate him because you need to understand the fundamental reason why we left the PDP to start the youth movement.
“After eight years from the North, it was time to zone but PDP refused to zone and that was why Obi left, I left, Doyin Okupe left, if we need to solve the problems outside the mechanism of the party, it does not change the issues or fundamental reason why we left, so for us to come back, there has to be trust.
“Now that the presidency is already in the South, I’m sure they can trust Obi because he has some capacity. He had nobody but got more than six million votes, while Atiku had all the structures with him, that tells you that Obi has momentum; we should begin to find people that will work with him – Atiku is good but at 80-year-old, no, let’s get the younger people to do this thing.
“Peter Obi has said when he is 76, he will get out of politics, we won’t expect a man of 80 to rule, if they can trust Peter, we will be able to form a formidable opposition.”
Obidient movement rejects VP slot
While there is uncertainty over the possible flag bearer and his running mate for the coalition when a political party is finally adopted, the choice of Atiku and Obi continues to stand out among the imminent personalities.
But, Ononuju, a founding member of the Obidient Movement has declared that they won’t accept the Vice presidential slot for Obi.
Ononuju insisted that the Obidient Movement will only back Obi if he becomes the presidential candidate.
He said: “The members of the Obidient Movement will not agree to work with Obi if he is not the presidential candidate on any ticket he runs on. And because he will not dare to disobey the wishes of the movement, he will not hurt them and I think that is the biggest problem they have.
“Having him around, him being quiet while you talk doesn’t mean he’s afraid – no – he has to answer to the people who follow him.
“I don’t think our laws allow that, with the current momentum, I don’t know if the laws allow Atiku to do Vice Presidency for a third time, he has done it twice, I don’t know what the law says. If two of them get there, Atiku will be VP for a third time.
“Now that we have momentum within the political space, Obi is the most popular politician in Africa, let us run with it, it’s a collective nation building effort. Let him be meeting all those people so that they can see his capacity for power.
“If they can support him, we can correct the fundamental problem that was the mistake of the PDP when they refused to zone the presidency to the South and that’s where the party got it wrong. The movement will support Obi if he is at the top of any ticket.
“Obi draws adrenaline from the frenzy in the crowd, he is just the face of a masquerade which is the people. Like you saw the alliance meeting, those were people gathered in numbers with regards to the decrees of the military.
“Peter owns the crowd on the streets. Let us work with that because we have something that if you put it in front of the masquerade, people will know that we are coming.
“Southerners who mostly support Peter will not join in removing the presidency from here. One thing Nigeria has gained is the slow down in the deaths in the East, Tinubu’s government has stopped the funding and support for the elements that are responsible for unknown gunmen sting operations.
“Nobody has a movement like the Obidient Movement, they will not support Peter at all if he is not at the top in any alliance. His movement is like a cult, nobody amongst them has the cult followers Peter has, which has surpassed the Buhari followership.”
Coalition: Obi’s involvement a calculated shot at winning presidency
On his part, activist lawyer, Maduabuchi Idam, has described it as a calculated political move to win the Presidency.
As a solo politician from the Southeast, Idam said the closest Obi can get to the Presidency under the current Nigerian electoral system is his performance at the last election because the APC-led government will not allow him replicate his feat in the last election.
He said: “Peter Obi’s involvement in the Coalition may not go down well with the Obidients, but his move remains a calculated political option, if he must take a shot (win) at the president.
“He is today, the most adorable political bride. No doubt!
“Many, including me, believe he would have won the 2023 election if INEC exhibited the minimum standard of electoral integrity. Unfortunately, the BIVAS and IREV failed to load.
“Today, if the election is conducted again, Peter Obi would hardly score half of his last votes. The ruling party would deploy every fraudulent style this time to rig him out before ballot materials are distributed on the election day.
“He wouldn’t win Lagos again and will hardly be able to win the FCT and many other states that he won in the last election.
“The mercenaries of the ruling party would not let that happen again. They are more audacious and reckless now than ever before, with their desire to remain in power.
“And they are determined to achieve that against every odds.
“With Peter Obi’s alliance with the coalition, he will at least enjoy the umbrage of a likely winning team and would stand a chance at the Presidency, if not now but later.”
