By Ikechukwu Samuel
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftain in Ogun State, Segun Sowunmi, has warned that President Bola Tinubu could face a difficult electoral battle in parts of the Southwest in the 2027 presidential election, particularly in Lagos and Oyo states.
Sowunmi, a former spokesman for 2023 PDP Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who spoke on Channels Television’s Politics Wednesday night, said Tinubu’s political strength in the region should not be taken for granted, arguing that the President’s chances could be weakened by political developments and internal disagreements within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
“You look at Lagos, the last time he lost an election, historically speaking, Tinubu’s legs are wobbling in his home state,” Sowunmi said.
He also expressed doubts about Tinubu’s prospects in Oyo State, where he said the President could struggle to secure a strong vote.
“In Oyo, Tinubu stands a very slim chance. Look at what happened. Without Makinde, the last time around, he had little or no chance,” he said, referring to the political influence of Governor Seyi Makinde.
Sowunmi, however, identified Ondo State as one of the states where Tinubu could still have a strong electoral advantage.
He also suggested that Osun could deliver substantial support for the President because of what he described as an “idyllic factor” in the state.
But he maintained that Lagos and Oyo remained critical areas of concern.
“Where you get the big numbers from Lagos and Oyo, Tinubu’s chances are slim,” he said.
On Ogun State, Sowunmi said the internal political situation could create additional challenges for the APC ahead of the election.
He argued that the biggest threat to Tinubu’s political fortunes in the Southwest could come from within the APC itself rather than from opposition parties.
“I don’t see anything that will affect the President in the Southwest except the management of his own people within his own party,” he said.
“In the Southwest as it’s structured today, the APC is the only one that can do damage to the APC.”
Sowunmi warned that ignoring influential politicians and grassroots political actors could have serious consequences for the ruling party’s electoral prospects.
“If they ignore all their election giants, and they insist that one individual will not manage the complexity of other people’s thoughts, and they insist that they are going to be smart by heart, leave out their heavy punchers,” he said.
He specifically cited Ogun State politician Abiodun Akinlade, whom he described as a four-time member of the House of Representatives and a politician with strong grassroots connections.
“If they disregard Akinlade, Abiodun Akinlade, fourth-time rep member, I pray to God Almighty, they don’t pay dearly for it,” Sowunmi said.
“That guy, I tell you, he’s phenomenal when it comes to giving back to the grassroots.”
Sowunmi also pointed to the difficulties that could arise when incumbent governors control the structures of their parties at the state level, particularly during primary elections.
He argued that the political influence of governors could make it difficult for aspirants to challenge them or their preferred candidates during party contests.
“The challenge he will have is that if you are contesting tickets, not general election, with a governor, by the mistake of 1999, which you have caused in this country by saying that governors are leaders of parties, which has been the tradition up till now, how will a governor lose primaries to you?” he asked.
“He will have all his local government people there. So that’s almost like a fait accompli.”
Sowunmi also criticised what he described as the failure of some Northern intellectuals to sufficiently examine the region’s developmental challenges while focusing their criticism on the Federal Government.
“Every time I listen to top-level supposed Northern intellectuals, one thing always bothers me,” he said.
“In all of the years that this country has stayed, do they even have the courage to look at the developmental and human capital indices of the North and speak to the issues? Why do they hyperventilate only when they’re talking about the federal government?”
He also defended some of the reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration, questioning why previous governments had not addressed long-standing structural problems.
“If you had a tax situation that was written in 1923, are the others who have been president before now blind? Why did they have to be the ones to rearrange it?” he asked.
Sowunmi similarly questioned why previous administrations had not adequately addressed challenges in education and policing.
“If you had a schooling situation where people cannot pay school fees and everybody is also in and out of school today and somebody starts a loan fund, are the others insensitive? Why did they do it?” he asked.
“If you had a situation where multimodal policing is requiring a bit of thinking into broadening architecture, why didn’t the others do it?”
He nevertheless argued that economic policies should take regional differences into account rather than being applied uniformly across the country.
“What you will consider as an economic policy that is good for maybe Southwest and Lagos may not be the right policy for them,” Sowunmi said.
In describing his preferred approach to governance, the PDP chieftain used a medical metaphor, contrasting what he regarded as a careful approach to solving national problems with a more destructive approach.
“If you want to do narrative for a nation, there are two ways,” he said. “There are those who may come in and do it surgically like a surgeon and remove the problem. And there are those who will come like a butcher and start smashing everything and make it worse.”
Sowunmi said he considered himself an advocate of the former approach.
“I dare say I am the surgeon. Dare say. Dare say,” he said.
His comments came as political parties and aspirants continued preparations for the 2027 general elections, with the Southwest expected to remain a crucial battleground in the presidential contest.
