By Osaretin Osadebamwen
Prof. Ken Ife, a development economist, has said the country’s poor rail network, empty strategic reserves, and post-harvest losses exceeding 70 percent are turning Nigeria into a nation that grows food it cannot eat
Nigeria’s food inflation climbed to 20.31 percent in July, its highest level in ten months, even as headline inflation eased to 15.43 percent. But according to Prof. Ken Ife, a development economist and Chief Economic Strategist of the ECOWAS Commission, the headline numbers mask a far more devastating reality: the country is losing between 40 and 70 percent of its agricultural produce to post-harvest losses, a crisis he maintain has been being fueled by crumbling infrastructure, widespread insecurity, and strategic food reserves that stand largely empty.
“Post-harvest loss is 40 to 70 percent,” Prof. Ife said this in live television. He added said “Nothing in the world we are seeing now is actually addressing post-harvest loss. We have strategic reserves that are meant to, first of all, dry the product before you actually send it into the reserves. But they’re empty. A lot of them are empty.”
The gap between urban inflation at 16.12 percent and rural inflation at 13.77 percent tells a story of logistics failures, Prof. Ife said. Moving food from farm to fork in Nigeria is prohibitively expensive, and road transport—dependent on expensive diesel—drives up costs at every stage.
“The cheapest cost of transporting goods across long distances is rail line,” he said. “We know that very well. In fact, the last real investment in the national rail network was in 1927. And if you notice that almost all the state capitals were all rail stations. When these rail stations cut off, when the rail stopped, Nigeria started to split into everybody going to their share.”
He argued that reviving the eastern and Lagos rail corridors would cut transport costs sharply. “We need to have this rail, the eastern rail, the Lagos, you need to get that because that is what makes food cheap. That is what delivers food. In the evening, in the morning, they come, they unite, they are there where they’re supposed to be.”
In the absence of rail, he said, the burden falls entirely on trucks. “Transportation is also dependent on diesel, which price has been liberalized. So it’s very, very high anyway. And a plane cannot do this. And then our inland waterways have not been developed to be able to use barges to move foodstuff.”
Imported food adds another layer of pressure, Prof. Ife explained. Farm-gate food inflation stands at about 4.6 percent, while imported processed food comes in at 5.6 percent—a difference that reflects global supply-chain disruptions.
“The imported food, imported processed food brought with it imported inflation,” he said. “You can understand that by supply chain disruption, what is going on in the Middle East, increase in freight charges, increase in insurance. So you can see where that is coming in. And then that also enters into the core.”
The most devastating aspect, however, is the sheer waste, he said. Many agricultural products must be processed within hours of harvest. “If you want to produce high-quality cassava flour or any of the derivatives, you have to process the cassava within 24 hours. Otherwise, forget it. If you don’t process oil palm within 24 hours, you have free fatty acids run high, and then the quality is compromised.”
Yet insecurity and poor logistics mean that produce often rots before it reaches any processor, he said. “That also means high food losses.”
Government interventions, Prof. Ife argued, have so far missed the mark. “The first palliative we threw into this story was to be able to put like an import moratorium where we imported food. But that was supposed to be a segue back to productivity and production. We’ve not done that.”
He questioned recent government announcements about importing tractors. “The president announced the other day that they got in tractors. Can you tell us the state of those tractors? They’re giving it out. What has been the productivity? What has been the productive output of food?”
He also dismissed claims that road construction alone would solve the problem. “If the government keeps saying that, oh, they are doing roads and everything, what has been the logistical interplay of all of this food?”
The problem is pervasive, he said, affecting not just Adamawa but Anambra and nearly every state. “It’s not a good story, honestly. It’s a pervasive story, and we’ve been telling the story, but it looks like nobody’s listening.”
Without a comprehensive overhaul of the agricultural logistics chain—from rapid processing facilities and functional rail networks to secure storage and efficient water transport—food prices will continue to rise, he warned. The macroeconomic wins celebrated at the top level have yet to translate into affordable meals for ordinary Nigerians.
“Factor into your analysis the effect of post-harvest losses that has also skyrocketed because of insecurity and because of a tender logistical interplay,” he said. “We need to have this rail, the eastern rail, the Lagos, you need to get that because that is what makes food cheap. That is what delivers food.”
