After a high stakes Governorship primaries, Adamawa state’s political field is left strewn with accusations, defections and realignments, altering political expectations, permutations and calculations.
Prior to the primaries, the Governor, RT. Hon. Ahmadu Umar Fintiri defected with his entire cabinet from his party, the People Democratic Party ( PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
In the newly formed African Democratic Congress (ADC), Senators Aishatu Dahiru Binani and Ishaku Abbo defected to the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the Labour Party (LP) respectively to pursue their gubernatorial ambitions.
After the initial declaration of Ambassador, Engr. Omar Suleiman popularly known as Omarana as the candidate for ADC, it was Tukur HammanTukur Modibbo Ribadu’s name that was submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC).
In the hitherto State’s ruling party, the PDP emerges Maurice Vonobolki as the candidate, with some grumbling from other contestants.
In the heat of the Governorship primaries, the State Governor, Ahmadu Umar Fintiri declared to the people of the State that he will hand over to a ” grassroots politician” and that he is prepared to ” laid down his life” to defend the political rights of the people of the State.
However, things seemed to be slipping out of the Governors political hands as the candidate that emerged from his new party, the APC neither represented the Governor’s grassroots politician mantra nor aligned to his avowed promise of lying down his life to defend the political interests of the people.
Even in the APC, old hands like Hon. AbdulRazaq Namdas, a new kid on the political block like Abdurrahman Haske, APC insider, Comrade Salihu Abdullahi and old Adamawa political war horse, Baba Joel Madaki could not survive the APC scheming.
This left the APC with a new political entrant, Tijjani Ahmed Galadima (TAG) as the candidate to fly the flag of APC in Adamawa State in 2027. How he fared will be seen after the election.
But historically, Adamawa State has a stubborn record of rejecting “popular”, “establishment” “godson” and “imposed” candidates, rather Adamawa voters end up voting a dark horse candidate as Governor. So political gladiators in the state like Atiku Abubakar, Admiral Murtala Nyako and now Nuhu Ribadu, the National Security Adviser ( NSA) should proceed cautiously as we near the election.
That was how Late Abubakar Barde, Sale Michika and Hon. Ahmadu Umar Fintiri emerged as Governors against formidable opponents like the late Ahmadu Ribadu, Ahmed Song and an incumbent, Sen. Umar Bindow Jibrilla
Even the victories of Alh. Bamanga Tukur and Atiku Abubakar in the State then did not go smoothly without legal and political challenges.
If the history of politics in the state, recent mood of voters and comments of political party members, stakeholders and aspirants is any guide, the fall out of the Governorship primaries in the State may likely lead to the election of a dark horse candidate as the next Governor, as none of the political parties had a clean primary election free of rancour, acrimony and betrayal.
Also the political fault lines of the state such as religion, tribe and political persuasions may also come into to play, making the Governorship election very unpredictable.
For instance, there is a feeling that the Adamawa Central zone of the State has never produce a Governor. The Christian in the state are grumbling that one of their own has not been a Governor since Governor Boni Haruna( 1999-2007).
The outlook of the candidates and the demographic of the state population will put pressure on the votes of each candidate positively or negatively All these subtle nuances will reflect in the general outcome of the election.
Governor Ahmadu Umar Fintiri has performed creditably well and will like his legacy continued, or at least protected. This makes it imperative for him to ensure, or be seen to ensure free, fair and credible elections, where the candidate of the people emerge.
However, any attempt, overt, covert or subtle to impose a candidate, manipulate the process or rig the election will be a double jeopardy for the Governor, as Adamawa voters will elect a dark horse and the legacy of the Governor will be in tatters and the governance trajectory of the State unpredictable.
Usman Umar Taoungo is a public affairs analyst and writes from Abuja
